Billy Beane understands risk.  This opinion is supported by his signing of Yoenis Cespedes.

Reward vs Risk.

Cost vs Benefit.

These concepts are hard to assess with something as imprecise as MLB player evaluation.  Much less international player evaluation.

But the OPPORTUNITY to bring a 26 year old slugger to a team desperate for power was worth a $6.6 risk for Year One.

If Cespedes does not pan out, can Beane find another buyer to take the last three years and $30 mill off his hands? I like his chances.

If Cespedes shows potential, Beane can keep him in year two and then re-evaluate.

If Cespedes is a star, the price tag for four years will be a bargain.

If Cespedes gets hurt…well, that is the primary risk in signing any player for four years.